Money blog: Inflation rises for first time since last year - here's why and what it means for interest rates (2024)

By Sky News Data and Forensics Unit

As we've discussed throughout the morning, the rate of inflation grew to 2.2% in July - the first time since December last year that it has increased.

Which shop prices are increasing fastest?

Olive oil costs nearly two fifths more than it did last year, with prices for 500ml-1 litre rising from £6.39 to £8.83 in just 12 months.

The Money blog looked at the reasons why here...

Plums, meanwhile, are up by a quarter, from £3.08 per kilo to £3.57.

Food and drink products are responsible for seven of the 10 highest increases since last year.

For fans of a slicked-back hairstyle, non-food items like hair gel increased by a third, and for any pet owners, the price of a small mammal cage nearly hopped up by a fifth.

Top five price rises:

• Olive oil (500ml-1litre): up 38%, £6.39 to £8.83
• Hair gel (150-200ml): up 33%, £3.08 to £4.10
• Plums (per kg): up 25%, £2.85 to £3.57
• White potatoes (per kg): up 20%, 74p to 89p
• Cauliflower (each): up 20%, £1.07 to £1.28

Fifty-six of the 156 types of food and drink tracked by the ONS have actually become cheaper since last year. Many of these were store cupboard staples like pulses, dried pasta, and canned tomatoes.

Top food price decreases:

• Pulses (390-420g): down 13%, 77p to 67p
• Frozen prawns (per kg): down 8%, £18.77 to £17.24
• Cheddar cheese (per kg): down 8%, £9.49 to £8.77
• Spreadable butter (500g): down 7%, £4.18 to £3.90
• Frozen berries (per pack): down 6%, £2.53 to £2.37

Of non-supermarket items, electric heaters have been some of the biggest price fallers - by 22%.

How much has your individual spending changed in the last year?

Use our calculator to see how much prices are rising on the groceries, clothing and leisure activities you pay for...

We've had some more ONS data this morning - this time on house and rent inflation.

While the figures are largely unchanged from a month ago, the rental stats in particular are worth outlining as they illustrate the difficulties still facing renters.

Official data shows:

• Average UK private rents increased by 8.6% in the 12 months to July 2024, unchanged from in the 12 months to June 2024;
• Average rents increased to £1,319 (8.6%) in England, £748 (7.9%) in Wales, and £965 (8.2%) in Scotland;
• In Northern Ireland, average rents increased by 10% in the 12 months to May 2024;
• In England, rents inflation was highest in London (9.7%) and lowest in the North East (6.1%).

On the housing market, we learned:

• Average UK house prices increased by 2.7%, to £288,000, in the 12 months to June 2024 - unchanged from a month before;
• Average house prices increased in England to £305,000 (2.4%), in Wales to £216,000 (1.8%), and in Scotland to £192,000 (4.3%).

By Sarah Taaffe-Maguire, business reporter

News of an increased rate of price rises was welcomed by UK markets but it hit the pound.

While inflation has increased, the fact the figure came in lower than expected could be a boost to the mainly UK-based companies that make up the FTSE 250, which rose 0.47% on the news, as did the 100 most valuable companies on the exchange, the FTSE 100.

The pound, however, fell from its highest since late July and now £1 buys $1.2838 and €1.1659.

Energy costs remain elevated with the benchmark oil price $81 for a barrel of Brent crude oil.

Gas prices are still below the 100p a therm (the measurement for heat) high seen on Monday evening but not by a whole lot at 96.65p a therm.

The biggest riser of FTSE 250 companies was gambling tech company Playtech.

Following Sky News reporting that gambling giant Flutter is in talks to buy the consumer arm of Playtech for £2bn, its share price shot up 13.57%.

Wizz Air has launched Europe's first unlimited flight package - but there are a few things you should know before signing up.

The All You Can Fly membership costs £534 for 12 months, and is currently on sale until tomorrow for £445.

Subscribers can use the deal to travel to more than 800 destinations as many times as they like over the course of a year, starting from 25 September.

Here's the catch - customers must book the flights within 72-hours of them taking off.

Each flight also comes with a £9 booking fee, which must be paid in addition to the membership.

And, the costs of booking a seat and adding luggage is also not included.

On the Wizz Air website, a "seat protection fee" ranges from ‎€80 (£68.31) to ‎€100 (£85.39), and adding a bag costs between €11 (£9.39) and ‎€120.50 (£102.89).

It's also important to note that there are only 10,000 memberships available.

Wizz Air's commercial officer Silvia Mosquera said: "We are thrilled to be the first to introduce this one-of-a-kind membership for travellers in Europe.

"The Wizz All You Can Fly membership will give customers hundreds of spontaneous travel options for a fixed price, giving them freedom to fly whenever is convenient without paying extra."

You can read all the terms and conditions of the All You Can Fly package here.

We'll continue to bring you fallout from this morning's inflation data - while also focusing on other money news now.

A little later on today we'll have this week's Cheap Eats - with a TV chef picking her favourites at home and in London.

An uptick in inflation was always expected and there could be further increases ahead, an economist has said.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, told Sky News the "good news" is core inflation - a key measure monitored by the Bank of England - is coming down.

"But what we do have is energy prices making that headline inflation slightly jumpier, because we had falls in energy prices last year and this year they [will be] going up a little bit again.

"So overall it's upward pressure again on inflation from energy prices."

The "main worry" is whether an uptick in inflation - which could reach 3% later this year - would "feed into stronger wage growth", causing further concern for the BoE, she added.

Let's have a look at what drove a slight rise in the headline inflation rate to 2.2%.

The latest numbers show that downward contributors (ie data that would drive a drop in inflation) in five divisions were offset by upwards contributions from four divisions...

The biggest upward pressure in the headline figure came from housing and household services - encompassing gas and electricity prices, which fell by less than they did last year.

"Although energy prices are lower in July than they were a year ago and are much lower than their peak in the first quarter of 2023, gas and electricity prices are still around 68% and 45% higher, respectively, than in March 2021," the Office for National Statistics said.

Interest rates have been kept high to squeeze the economy and slow down price rises - reducing inflation.

But today's upward movement in inflation is unlikely to set back hopes for more base rate cuts from the Bank of England, analysts say.

In fact, the chances of a September cut have risen slightly - with market forecasts up from 36% yesterday to 45% today.

Markets still think there are two cuts to come this year, bringing the base rate down to 4.5%.

Capital Economics analysts say inflation actually rose less than expected, and that the data behind headline inflation is encouraging...

"The sharp fall in services inflation from 5.7% to a two-year low of 5.2% will reassure the Bank of England that the disinflation process is on track and opens the door to more interest rate cuts later this year."

Capital notes that core inflation and fuel inflation are also down.

"The main surprise was that the fall in restaurants and hotels inflation from 6.2% to 4.9% was bigger than the drop to 5.6% we had forecast.

"And importantly for the Bank of England, the decline in services inflation from 5.7% to 5.2% was much bigger than anyone anticipated."

Capital believes interest rates will fall throughout next year to a landing point of 3%. Markets currently think 3.5% is a more likely destination in 2025.

Shadow chancellor Jeremy Hunt says the latest inflation figures show "how important it is that the new Labour government follows the path of the previous Conservative government and focus on keeping inflation low".

"In government, we took the difficult decisions to reduce inflation from 11.1% to the Bank of England's target of 2% – paving the way for the first interest rate cut in four years," he said.

"However, there is clearly more to be done to keep inflation down."

Mr Hunt added that chancellor Rachel Reeves "must not use this data as an excuse to break her promises and hike up taxes".

The UK's CPI inflation rate was belowFrance's (2.6%) and Germany's (2.6%) in the 12 months to July this year.

It's also slightly lower than the latest figure from the Eurozone, which also stands at 2.6%.

Meanwhile, the UK remains comfortably below the US figure of 3%.

The latest figure for the US is from June, with the labour department set to release its July inflation figures this afternoon.

Forecasters have predicted it will cool further after a drop the previous month.